What about unemployment caused by machine change in industry? The United States used to do it! China is on the way!

Over the past two centuries of economic history, most of the world's countries have experienced exponential growth in GDP per capita, and people enjoying the economic dividends have to admit that this unprecedented economic progress in human history would not have been possible without major technological breakthroughs. The British Enlightenment brought new ways to translate scientific discoveries into practical tools for engineers and craftsmen, the discovery of the steam engine, which made electricity, sanitation the engine that drove economic growth and increased the standard technologies necessary for survival across the planet, and now the robot revolution has arrived.

　　There has been an ongoing debate between the pro and anti sides of the debate about the social impact of machine replacement, a debate that is taking place all over the world and is being supported by relevant research reports and data. Just as movements such as the Luddite movement at the start of the Industrial Revolution were prompted by fears in Britain of labor displacement in the textile sector, so too is unemployment the primary cause of many people's concerns about machine change now, just as the most famous Lutheran protesters in history destroyed the machines they used on the job to secure worker employment, reasoning that if automation could double, triple or quadruple, then the economy would need half, a third, a quarter of the current workforce, but history tells us that machine production was an inevitable part of factory development, and the economy didn't decline as a result.

　　Why do we have to firmly support the machine for people, the United States for 27 years of machine for people journey, perhaps unveiled the truth behind the machine for people from multiple angles.

　　What is the impact of machine replacement on the United States?

　　In many areas of the United States, robots have been replacing workers for the past few decades. But in 2007 to 2009, because the Great Recession began, machine replacement has slowed down. The Great Recession was the economic downturn that followed the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the global financial crisis. After the Great Recession began, the demand for economic recovery caused labor costs to plummet, and the new industries that recovered saved many jobs and slowed automation in the U.S., causing the intensity of robot use to begin to drop sharply or even almost stagnate after the economic crisis began in 2007, but, oddly enough, by 2009 onward U.S. nationwide, robotics intensity began to rise steeply again and continued to rise steadily thereafter.

　　A World Foundation report examines the actual situation during this period and estimates the impact of increasing automation after the Great Recession from 2009 to 2017, and the results of the data they obtained show that the use of industrial robots in the U.S. more than doubled during this period, but employment did not suffer as a result, industry efficiency improved as a result, and the U.S. economy began to recover .

　　Because machine replacement has a strong geographical. The report found that the top 10 areas with the highest robot intensity were all in the Midwestern states, where robot intensity has been extremely high for 10 years, and where the numbers are typically at least twice as high as all other areas, with little impact on unemployment.

　　What is the reason for this? The report argues that the reason robots have not yet had the dire national impact that many feared during this time frame is because the impact of machine change can vary by worker group and has a lot to do with region and industry. This is reflected in the fact that the main body of machine-for-machine workers tends to be the less educated population in the Midwestern manufacturing sector of the U.S. As a result, younger workers, who tended to be less educated men and less educated adult women, were the first to lose their jobs at a high rate after the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, while robots also significantly reduced the wages of well-educated young men and women in the Midwestern manufacturing sector. But this situation is quickly being trickled down.

　　William Rodgers, a professor of public policy at the Edward Blaustein Institute, who authored the report, said, "In a sense, increased automation clearly eliminates the lazy and the career losers - the younger, less educated manufacturing workers in the Midwest, especially the younger minority workers in those industries , all of whom have paid a big price for machine replacement."

　　But Rogers also believes that although companies continue to take machine replacement in order to improve efficiency, because the government has introduced strong economic pulling tools during this period of time, driven by the huge demand for economic recovery, all industries have seen an explosive climax, so the strong demand for economic recovery has masked some of the adverse effects on the wages and jobs of Midwestern manufacturing workers, because the urgency of employment has prompted this earliest The beginning of a spontaneous employment shift for the unemployed group, along with a very large number of new industries that have generated greater demand for jobs because of robotics to improve efficiency, and even without such a strong recovery, new industries employing robots are bringing in more jobs than they would otherwise.

　　AFP has reported for this reason that robots are expected to bring about 20 million new manufacturing jobs worldwide by 2030, while in turn boosting overall economic output. Thus the social upheaval caused by machine replacement is not significant. The Heldrich Center for Workforce Development Economics Study also says, "These post-Great Recession recovery industries are not only using the largest number of robots, but are also recruiting the fastest growing robot maintenance workforce."

　　The data show that the number of robot occupancies per capita has more than doubled since 2009, from 0.813 per 1,000 workers to 1.974 per 1,000 workers in the U.S. This means that these unemployed groups are beginning to try to concentrate in related industries centered on the robotics industry. The results of this study also suggest that at the stage and pace of robotics development and under the right economic conditions, some workers without college degrees are beginning to benefit from robotization as it disguises a push to upgrade their self-industry.

　　This perception is recognized by a very large number of authorities, and according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the total use of robots in U.S. manufacturing has more than tripled in the last two decades and has doubled in the rest of the world, with robots replacing many categories of workers who former workers are beginning to shift in robot-related directions and similar industries. Moreover, it is not just the nature of workers' jobs that has changed during the machine replacement process; automated processes and efficiencies are also being upgraded as a result. According to the analysis, robots have also eroded a certain number of mid-level "middle-skill" occupations, while the share of high-skill and low-skill jobs is also increasing.

　　Machine replacement is a matter of economics

　　At the same time, the report finds that machine change has been a fundamental change in many industries, accelerating the flow of the global economy.

　　Industrial robots were originally developed as essentially a human device to improve yields as well as unit output efficiency. In the United States, four manufacturing industries account for 70 percent of robots: automotive manufacturers (38 percent of robots in use), electronics (15 percent), plastics and chemical industries (10 percent), and metal manufacturers (7 percent). The automotive industry has the highest robot penetration rate and is also most affected by machine change. These industries require high standardization of components because of single product categories and high sales volume, and machine change has significantly improved efficiency.

　　But the automotive industry, the United States first began to change people, but in 2007 by France to catch up, then France has been in the first place, followed by the United States and Germany. The density of robot adoption in French auto manufacturing is 148 robots per 1,000 workers, compared to 136 in the U.S., while Italy and Germany use about 120 robots. A report published in the journal Political Economy by Dr. Pascual Restrepo, assistant professor of economics at Boston University, explains the phenomenon: "France, as well as countries such as Spain, the United Kingdom and Sweden, were ahead of the United States on average in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but in the last decade, the United States has overtaken these countries, which It all started in 1993, but it lasted until 2007, when the U.S. fell into hesitation about machine for human, so the U.S. was overtaken again."

　　This phenomenon came about because of the disappearance of the advantages of the U.S. machine-to-machine industry cluster. "Even though the United States is a very technologically advanced economy, in terms of industrial robot production, use and innovation, it is a process that requires continuous exploration, and the 2-year stagnation makes it still behind many other developed economies," MIT economist Daron Acemoglu, an MIT economist who analyzed the impact of robotics in 722 commuting zones in the continental U.S., said that because there are significant geographic differences in the intensive use of robotics in the U.S., once stagnation occurs, the advantages of a particular regional industry cluster may be lost as a result.

　　Given the tendency for robotics development deployment to be concentrated in the Midwest, the U.S. was most affected in 2007 by the automotive industry, as Michigan had the highest concentration of robots, and in Detroit, upstream and downstream industry employment in Lansing and Saginaw was most impacted. "Different industries have different footprints in different parts of the U.S.," Acemoglu noted. "The most obvious place for the robotics problem is Detroit. Whatever happens in auto manufacturing has a much greater impact on the Detroit area than anywhere else."

　　Combining the IFR data, the researchers found that in these regions, replacing people with machines makes each robot replace an average of about 3.3 jobs locally, but because of the cluster effect, adding robots to manufacturing can benefit people in other industries and other parts of the country by, for example, lowering the cost of goods, and the overall economic benefits to those countries tend to be higher. For example, the adoption of robots to install windshields in Germany's Mercedes-Benz A-class cars will give companies a more competitive advantage in terms of price and other aspects, prompting consumers in their home country or other countries to make purchases, and this one small change may be able to speed up the economic cycle. Researchers believe that by 2030, the global productivity gains brought about by machine replacement will bring a $5 trillion "robot dividend" to the global economy, and machine replacement is more of an economics issue.

　　The pain of machine replacement is still there

　　But Americans also believe that machine change as a change in production methods, inevitably bring the inevitable pain.

　　First, there will be a short period of employment pressure on the government. Although automation usually brings more job creation than it destroys, in recent years, this trend has caused a certain degree of concern due to short-time skill gaps, thus causing many workers to lose their jobs. What needs to be considered is that, regardless of whether the new occupations brought about by machine replacement can eventually replace the traditional occupations, in the next few decades, there will be up to 50% of workers facing the risk of unemployment due to automation, and the impact of such fluctuations in industry instability on society cannot be ignored, and this is a continuous process that requires the attention of some city managers who are more seriously affected by machine replacement.

　　Second, the wages of some industry workers will be affected. The Century Foundation has published a report entitled " how robots are beginning to affect workers and their wages" shows that once companies use robots in the workplace, will also make most people's wages reduced by about 0.4 percent. Daron Acemoglu, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also said, "The first thing most of us can directly notice about the negative wage impact of machine replacement is that workers are being paid less in real terms in the more severely affected areas because robots do have lower long-term insured ratios than humans. " He points out that jobs such as warehouses, which require repetitive functions, are heavily impacted, but the impact of the machine-for-man trend is put in the context of the broader national economy functioning in a smaller way.

　　Third, Americans believe it will exacerbate the trend toward greater social inequality. acemoglu found a direct link between automation in robot-using industries and declining earnings for blue-collar workers. He said that in the U.S., while machine replacement continues, it is already exacerbating problems in income inequality because the impact of robots varies by industry and region. This is because some people are reluctant to leave their hometowns, but their age and ability to learn make them unable to keep up with the job demands of automation, without many other good employment options leaving them to accept lower wages. acemoglu said: "When robots are added to manufacturing plants, the burden falls on low- and middle-skilled workers. "

　　Fourth, it makes for greater regional differentiation. Because the impact of machine replacement will be uneven depending on the country and region, from a global perspective, machine replacement will also widen regional development imbalances. A study by the Oxford Economics Institute in the UK concluded that job losses due to the rise of robots will not be evenly distributed around the world or within countries. The study notes that robots have replaced millions of manufacturing jobs globally due to varying rates of progress in computer vision, speech recognition and machine learning, but even in the same country, unemployment rates in low-skilled occupational areas are twice as high as in high-skilled areas, and will increasingly vary across countries. This is particularly evident in the self-driving car, robotic food preparation, and factory and warehouse automation operations industries.

　　"Jobs that require empathy, creativity or social intelligence in less structured social environments are likely to be performed by humans in the coming decades." An AFP report noted that robots will not be able to completely replace people at this stage, but they will increasingly play a role in retail, healthcare, hospitality, transportation, construction and agriculture, making these industries the first to begin the change. Automation will continue to drive polarization across industry regions and sectors in many advanced economies, and this trend will intensify as automation spreads to services," the authors write. But there is a corresponding reduction in human work hours."

　　But they warned policymakers not to act to slow the adoption of robotics. Instead, they write, "the focus should be on using robotics to help prepare people in vulnerable areas for the major upheavals to come. Preparing for and responding to the social impact of automation will be the defining challenge of the next decade, and the ability of governments to build plans and measures for machine replacement is even more important"

　　Change will come eventually

　　Today, many prominent business executives like Jack Ma and Musk believe we are on the cusp of a new technological revolution, where in the future artificial intelligence (AI) automation can replace most of the jobs humans currently perform. Just as horses are being replaced by motor vehicles, truck drivers will soon be replaced by self-driving cars, and factories that produce components for personal computers and tablets are becoming highly automated, with Foxconn already replacing 60,000 workers with robots.

　　Many companies are at the forefront of the changes of the times, and doubling the scale of production can allow output to reach more than twice the initial size, and as companies become larger