How Will Humanoid Robots Develop? Listen To What These Industry, Academia And Research Leaders Have To Say

In less than a year, humanoid robots have exploded, with various prototypes being produced, and various core components heating up rapidly. Faced with the great vision of having one humanoid robot in each hand, how should Chinese humanoid robot companies survive until the day when they explode?

On April 2, at the "2024 China Humanoid Robot Ecological Conference" roundtable forum hosted by China Robot Network and Smart Valley Industrial Park, Ji Chao, Chief Scientist of iFlytek Humanoid Robots, Zhao Jie, Director of Harbin Institute of Technology Robotics Research Institute, and Yushu Technology Co-founding partner Chen Li, Pacini Sensing founder Xu Jincheng, Leju Robot founder Leng Xiaokun, Qianjiang Robot chief scientist and deputy general manager Kong Minxiu focused on "China's opportunities for humanoid robots and the earliest commercialization scenarios", etc. The topic was discussed in depth.

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The following is the transcript of this roundtable exchange, edited and edited by "China Robot Network":

Ji Chao: First of all, please share the market conditions and changes in the field of robotics this year based on your own practice.

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Moderator Ji Chao, Chief Scientist of iFlytek Humanoid Robots

Zhao Jie: As the current national economic situation is relatively deflationary, good news came from the national level at the beginning of this year, which is also good news for the entire robot industry.

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Zhao Jie, Director of the Robotics Research Institute of Harbin Institute of Technology

Chen Li: From the product side, humanoid robots have gradually matured and can do a lot of things in the future. Its market share and future expectations are very high. The market share of humanoid robots is a dynamic development process. I believe that the market for humanoid robots will be worth hundreds of billions or even trillions in the future.

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Co-founding partner of Yushu Technology Chen Li

Xu Jincheng: The current development speed of language models is very close to the use of embodied intelligence. As an industrial power or an advanced manufacturing power, we must seize the opportunity and vigorously develop hardware. The most advanced supply chain in the world is in China.

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Founder of Pacini Perception Xu Jincheng

Leng Xiaokun: Before 2023, humanoid robots were an unpopular track. After the popularity of humanoid robots, everyone began to discuss from "why humanoid robots" to "what to do next with humanoid robots", paying more attention to embodied intelligence, industrial chain and scene layout.

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Leng Xiaokun, founder of LeJu Robot

Kong Minxiu: When we first started, we were engaged in industrial integration, and then we started to develop into humanoid robots. The reason is that we realize that humanoid robots have great market prospects in smart kitchens.

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Kong Minxiu, chief scientist and deputy general manager of Qianjiang Robotics

Ji Chao: What are the opportunities for China to develop the humanoid robot industry?

Zhao Jie: Humanoid robots are very popular, and all levels of society have high expectations. However, technological breakthroughs are also very difficult, and the real scene is still in sight. First of all, we pay too much attention to the human form and too much attention to the two legs below the waist. On the contrary, we should pay great attention to the upper body, head and arms. The core elements of robots are: improving quality, increasing efficiency, and replacing people. No matter how good a humanoid robot is at walking, there will be no market if it cannot do skilled work, so hands are very important. Different scenes have different ways of movement, and legs are just one way of movement.

Chen Li: There are still some difficulties in humanoid robots. First of all, humanoid robots have many degrees of freedom, and the reliability and stability of the entire machine urgently need to be addressed. Then there is the cost. No matter what form the humanoid robot takes, if it is to enter thousands of households, it still has to solve the problem of cost-effectiveness. Robot companies and artificial intelligence companies are in completely different directions. How to integrate the two in the later stage is more difficult.

Xu Jincheng: The definition of the human form cannot be narrow. Once it is narrow, it will affect development. The upper body of the humanoid robot maximizes the value, while the lower body has more room for development.

Leng Xiaokun: In terms of the industrial chain, China has huge advantages in developing humanoid robots. The second is the data set. The ultimate core of humanoid robots is to use two hands to intervene in the physical world to complete tasks. China is currently the country with the most complete use cases for robots. It is the most convenient to obtain these data, whether from the upstream industrial chain or from In terms of downstream usage scenarios, from the perspective of data acquisition, I believe that domestic humanoid robots still have great advantages.

Kong Minxiu: Humanoid robots have several characteristics. The first characteristic comes from demand. The basis of humanoid robots is intelligence. Second, in applications such as polishing and grinding, humanoid robots may also be a solution. Third, humanoid robots can replace humans in some dangerous scenes.

Ji Chao: In what scenarios are humanoid robots expected to be commercialized first in China? In this process, how do Chinese companies plan?

Zhao Jie: Judging from the current situation, the first place where humanoid robots can break through is in the industrial scene, not in the home. There is still some way to go in the service industry.

Chen Li: It will be very difficult for humanoid robots to enter thousands of households in the next two to three years, but industrial scenarios can be gradually explored. In addition, the simple operation of patrol inspection in personnel-oriented industries is also a scenario where humanoid robots can be implemented in recent years. The future of humanoid robots entering homes is a definite direction, but this process is very long.

Ji Chao: Based on your judgment, in the future when humanoids enter the factory, what is the appropriate price for the hardware?

Chen Li: First of all, the market price of the product itself should be the same as a worker's salary for one to two years. In other words, the price of the machine itself should be controlled at 200,000 RMB or even 100,000 RMB, preferably within 100,000 RMB. . For a customized solution in a factory or other scenarios, the overall package should be controlled within 200,000 to 300,000.

Xu Jincheng: The humanoid will definitely be the first one to enter the industry, and then gradually move towards the home. It won't take three to five years. Let's see if it can be done this year or next year.

Leng Xiaokun: Musk proposed that humanoid robots will eventually enter the home. If this story is true, humanoid robots will be the next generation of mobile phones and cars. To truly allow household humanoid robots to enter special industrial scenarios, national policies or government subsidies are still needed.

Kong Minxiu: Humanoid robots mainly need to solve the problems of technological breakthroughs, such as dexterous hands, materials, structural design, algorithms, underlying control, intelligence, etc. Only when technology breakthroughs can truly enter the market.

Although the progress of new technologies is gratifying, no company on the market has yet achieved mass production. The current humanoid robot competition is still in the "laboratory". Tesla, which is closest to the goal, has also failed to achieve the "2023 mass production" plan as scheduled. It will take longer to truly move towards commercialization.

The ideal robot nanny must have the ability to perceive, make decisions and act independently. Currently, robots are not able to do things like humans. The core reason is that the level of intelligence is not enough.

Last year, large-scale artificial intelligence models developed rapidly, providing intelligent brains for robots. The commercialization of humanoid robots accelerated, and they are regarded as another disruptive product after computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles. The industry is on the eve of industrialization and international competition is fierce. Where will humanoid robots develop this year? let us wait and see.